Vince Campisi's College Football Game Preview
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Missouri Tigers10/07/09
--by Vince CampisiGAME FIVE
October 8th, 2009
8:00 PM CT
Columbia, MO
Television Coverage: ESPN#21(AP)/#22(C) NEBRASKA (3 - 1) (0 - 0)
VS
#24(AP)/18(C)
MISSOURI (4 - 0) (0 - 0)Gametime WeatherWeather Report for Nebraska vs. MissouriLatest Line Nebraska by 3.5.
Schedules/ResultsMissouri09/05/09 - at. Illinois - W 37-9
09/12/09 - vs. Bowling
Green - W 27-20
09/19/09 - vs. Furman - W 52-12
09/25/09 - at. Nevada - W 31-21
10/08/09 - vs. Nebraska
10/17/09 - at. Oklahoma State
10/24/09 - vs. Texas
10/31/09 - at. Colorado
11/07/09 - vs. Baylor
11/14/09 - at. Kansas State
11/21/09 - vs. Iowa State
11/28/09 - at. Kansas
Nebraska09/05/09 - vs. Florida Atlantic - W 49-3
09/12/09 - vs. Arkansas State - W 38-9
09/19/09 - at. Virginia Tech - L 15-16
09/26/09 - vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
- W 55-0
10/08/09 - at. Missouri
10/17/09 - vs. Texas Tech
10/24/09 - vs. Iowa State
10/31/09 - at. Baylor
11/07/09 - vs. Oklahoma
11/14/09 - at. Kansas
11/21/09 - vs. Kansas State
11/27/09 - at. Colorado
Player BreakdownsMissouri OffenseMissouri's
offense has played pretty well despite replacing many of last year's
top performers. They have had problems running the football this year,
and struggle against a good pass rush. The Tigers are currently ranked
16th nationally in total offense (453 ypg), 10th in passing (310 ypg),
6th in passing efficiency (166.23 rating), 60th in rushing (143 ypg),
15th in scoring offense (36.75 ppg), 1st in interceptions thrown (0),
25th in fumbles lost (3), and 1st in giveaways (3).
QB:
So. Blaine Gabbert (87 of 131, 1161 yds, 11 TDs, 0 INTs) has done a
great job so far of replacing three year starter Chase Daniel. Gabbert
is a big (6'5", 240 lbs), athletic QB that has a very good arm and good
foot speed to go along with it. Gabbert's 168.57 passer rating is 4th
best in the nation, and the best in the Big XII. He didn't spend a lot
of time in the pocket last week, as most of his passes were either
quick outs or bootlegs to throw deep. He does have a lot of confidence
in his arm, as he will take some chances deep into coverage. So far
this has worked well, considering he has yet to be picked off. He has
struggled under pressure, and will face more of it as the Tigers enter
Big XII play. Even with the pressure, he is often able to escape the
pocket and make plays on the run. He's not going to outrun an entire
defense, but he is deceptively fast. The Tigers will run the read
option, which he has done well. He has rushed for 80 yards and 2
touchdowns on 29 attempts (63 yards lost on sacks). Behind Gabbert is
So. Jimmy Costello (6 of 11, 39 yds). Costello has played in mop-up
duty in just two games this year.
RB: The
Tigers' running game is struggling this year, averaging just 3.7 yards
per carry as a team. The running backs are fairly talented, but just
haven't been getting it done on the field. Jr. Derrick Washington (68
carries, 301 yds, 2 TDs) is the top back for the Tigers. Washington
was an All-Big XII caliber back a season ago, but is 8th in the
conference right now in yards per game (75.2). He doesn't have great
top-end speed, or tremendous acceleration, but has enough of both to be
a capable back, which he showed last year. His numbers are helped by a
42 yarder he reeled off against an out of position Nevada defense in
the second half of last week's game. Top reserves to Washington
include So. De'Vion Moore (9 carries, 24 yds), TFr. Kendial Lawrence
(27 carries, 132 yds), and So. Gilbert Moye (6 carries, 35 yds). The
backs see an occasional throw their way, typically by way of a middle
screen for a change of pace. Washington (5 catches, 22 yds), Moye (1
catch, 5 yds), and Moore (1 catch, -3 yds) have all caught passes this
season.
WR/TE: The Tigers' receiving corps had the
tough task of replacing a huge chunk of last year's playmakers, most
notably, Jeremy Maclin and Tommy Saunders. It isn't as good of a group
as it was a season ago, but there are some bona fide playmakers present
and accounted for. Starting at "H" is Sr. Danario Alexander (29
catches, 404 yds, 4 TDs), with So. Jerrell Jackson (8 catches, 94 yds,
1 TD) and TFr. T.J. Moe (2 catches, 8 yds) backing him up. Alexander
is the top playmaker on the offense, he has great leaping ability and
is tough to bring down. He had an incredible 170 yards and 2
touchdowns last week against the hapless Nevada secondary. His tall
6'5" frame makes him tough to match-up against, allowing him to come
down with lofty jump balls from QB Gabbert. Jackson does a nice job in
the slot, and is a solid target. He's thrown to more than his number
of catches might indicate. Starting at "X" is Sr. Jared Perry (25
catches, 381 yds, 5 TDs), with So. Brandon Gerau (2 catches, 19 yds)
and RFr. Rolandis Woodland (1 catch, 5 yds) backing him up. Perry is
another excellent target, has great hands, and leads the team in
touchdown receptions. Starting at "Z" is So. Wes Kemp (10 catches, 219
yds, 2 TDs), while So. Michael Egnew (2 catches, 14 yds) backs him up.
Kemp has been one of the top deep threats in the Big XII thus far this
season. He has great size (6'4") and speed to go with it. This
season's group of tight ends lacks the great targets they have
contained in the past, most recently Chase Coffman. Taking his place
are So. Andrew Jones (7 catches, 39 yds) and So. Beau Brinkley. Both
are almost identical in size at about 6'5" and 230 lbs. With that kind
of size, you would assume they'd present some great match-up problems
for their opponents, however, that hasn't quite come to fruition this
season.
OL: Missouri's offensive line is a mostly
young group, but doesn't lack experience. They were expected to be a
very solid unit at the beginning of the season, but have been
disappointing, unable to pave lanes for the running game. Last week
against Nevada, the pocket was often collapsing quickly, forcing QB
Blaine Gabbert to run from sideline to sideline to buy time to throw.
Starting at tackle is So. Elvis Fisher (6'5", 300 lbs) on the left and
So. Dan Hoch (6'7", 310 lbs) on the right. Fisher is a pretty solid
pass protector, but he can definitely improve as a rush blocker. Hoch
is the biggest of the bunch, but is not the most athletic. Against
Nevada, he was consistently beaten off the edge by the opposing DE.
The top reserves at tackle are TFr. Justin Britt (6'5", 295 lbs) and
TFr. Jack Meiners (6'6", 305 lbs). Starting at guard is So. Austin
Wuebbels (6'3", 302 lbs) on the left and Sr. Kurtis Gregory (6'5", 305
lbs) on the right. The Tigers have had trouble running between the
tackles, and both of these starters need to get better. Gregory had a
lot of trouble last week against Nevada, getting pushed around and
outmuscled by the opposing defensive tackles. Top back-ups at guard
are So. Jayson Palmgren (6'2", 305 lbs) and RFr. Travis Ruth (6'3", 305
lbs). At center is Jr. Tim Barnes (6'4", 310 lbs), with So. J.T.
Beasley (6'4", 295 lbs) backing him up. Barnes does a good job of
delivering consistently placed snaps in the Tigers' shotgun spread
offense.
Missouri DefenseMissouri's
defense has been pretty mediocre, giving up a lot of yards to less than
excellent opposing offenses. The Tigers currently rank 59th nationally
in total defense (351.75 ypg), 68th in pass defense (218 ypg), 39th in
pass efficiency defense (113.27 rating), 61st in rush defense (133.75
ypg), 21st in scoring defense (15.50 ppg), 101st in interceptions
forced (2), 56th in fumbles recovered (4), and 95th in total takeaways
(6).
DL: The Tigers' defensive line has been
decent, but has struggled mightily to stuff the run, even against the
weaker teams they've played this season. Starting at defensive end is
Sr. Brian Coulter (7 tackles, 1 FR, 1 QBH) on the left end and RFr.
Aldon Smith (20 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 FF, 2 PBU) on the right end. Smith
has been a nice surprise this season, playing like a veteran despite
being just a freshman. He does a very good job as a pass rusher and
leads the team in sacks. Coulter has been decent, and had a huge
fumble recovery on the Missouri 3 yard line last week against Nevada.
Top reserves on the ends are So. Jacquies Smith (13 tackles, 1.5 sacks,
1 INT, 1 QBH), RFr. Marcus Malbrough (1 tackle), and RFr. Brad Madison
(1 tackle). Starting at defensive tackle is So. Terrell Resonno (4
tackles), with So. Dominique Hamilton (11 tackles) backing him up.
Hamilton has started the past three games for Resonno, however, Terrell
is expected to get the nod this week. These guys are trying to fill
the void left by Ziggy Hood this year, a tall task. Starting at nose
tackle is Sr. Jaron Baston (11 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 PBU), with RFr.
Jimmy Burge serving as his back-up. Baston is solid at nose, but isn't
your prototypical size at just 6'1". The line needs to do a better job
of filling running lanes, because they won't get away with victories in
the Big XII with a porous rush defense.
LB:
Missouri's linebacking corps might be the best unit on the defense, but
has still had their share of problems. They have been biting hard on
misdirection plays as well as play action. Starting at middle
linebacker is Jr. Luke Lambert (9 tackles), with So. Will Ebner (29
tackles, 1 sack) backing him up. Lambert has been injured, but is
expected to be back this week. He's not the best athlete you'll see on
the field, but is a pretty smart backer. Ebner took his place, doing a
pretty good job of tackling and hitting hard, however, was easily
fooled by the zone read option and was not great in pass coverage. At
weakside linebacker is Sr. Sean Weatherspoon (38 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1
FF, 1 QBH, 1 PBU), while TFr. Donovan Bonner (8 tackles) backs him up.
Weatherspoon is probably the best player on the defense, if not the
entire team. He's fast, strong, and a solid hitter. He does well in
all areas of defense, whether he's blitzing, filling a gap, or dropping
back in coverage. Jr. Andrew Gachkar (20 tackles, 1 sack, 1 FR) starts
at strongside linebacker, with RFr. Zaviar Gooden (7 tackles) providing
back-up. Gachkar, like the other linebackers in this group, is a hard
hitter. He isn't lightning quick, however, and needs to show better
instincts in pass coverage.
DB: The Tigers'
secondary is a middle of the road unit. Opponents are completing a
high 61.2% of their passes, good enough for 10th in the Big XII.
Starting at cornerback is Jr. Carl Gettis (19 tackles, 1 FF, 3 PBU) at
left corner and Jr. Kevin Rutland (14 tackles, 1 PBU) on the right.
Gettis is the only returning starter back from 2008 in the secondary.
He's been the best all-around in the group this season and leads the
team in break-ups. Rutland is a very speedy corner that should get
better each week as he gets more experience. Players in the reserve
rotation include So. Trey Hobson (9 tackles), RFr. Robert Steeples (2
tackles, 1 PBU), and RFr. Kip Edwards (5 tackles). Jr. Munir Prince (5
tackles) is a top back-up at corner for the Tigers, however, is not
expected to play due to a hamstring injury. Starting at strong safety
is Jr. Jarrell Harrison (10 tackles), with So. Kenji Jackson (17
tackles) and Sr. Del Howard (4 tackles, 1 FR) serving as his back-ups.
Harrison shot up the depth chart after joining the Tigers in January as
a former JUCO player. Jackson is listed as a co-starter and sees just
as many snaps as Harrison. At free safety is Jr. Jasper Simmons (24
tackles, 1 FF, 1 FR), while Sr. Hardy Ricks (2 tackles, 1 INT) backs
him up. Ricks was the starter a season ago but was beaten out by
Simmons over the off-season. He was been a sure tackler and hard
hitter, and is playing well enough to stay on the field over Ricks.
Missouri Special TeamsMissouri's
special teams units are decent, but unspectacular, lacking punch in
their return games and fairly mediocre in coverage. The Tigers
currently rank 2nd in net punting (42.82 yd avg), 60th in kickoff
returns (21.82 yd avg), 91st in punt returns (5.50 yd avg), 103rd in
kickoff coverage (24.46 yd avg), and 18th in punt coverage (3 yd avg).
K:
So. Grant Ressel has made all 10 of his field goal attempts with a long
of 46 this season. He has been very impressive in his first season as
the top kicker. Sr. Tanner Mills has a big leg and is the kickoff
specialist, pushing 7 of his 31 kickoffs for a touchback this season.
He is averaging 66.5 yards per kickoff.
P: Sr.
Jake Harry is averaging 45.1 yards on his 16 punts with a long of 69
this season. 6 of his 16 punts have been downed inside the opponents'
20. His numbers have been helped by a lengthy bounces.
KR/PR:
The top kickoff return unit for the Tigers will be Jr. Jasper Simmons
(7 kick returns, 23.3 yd avg, 33 yd long) and So. De'Vion Moore. The
top punt return man is Jr. Carl Gettis (5 punt returns, 6 yd avg, 19 yd
long), while So. Brandon Gerau (1 punt return, 3 yds) also fields punts
this season. The return units have not been as dynamic as a season
ago, due to the loss of Jeremy Maclin.
Coverage:
The Tigers' kick and punt coverage units have been fairly mediocre this
season. The kick coverage unit is allowing an average of 24.5 yards on
24 kickoff return attempts, with a long of 52. The punt coverage unit
is allowing an average of just 3 yards on 4 punt return attempts, with
a long of 4.
Nebraska OffenseNebraska's
offense has looked very good this season, but does struggle with
consistency. They have good balance, able to beat teams running and/or
throwing the football. Nebraska currently ranks 19th nationally in
total offense (440 ypg), 33rd in passing (256.25 ypg), 20th in pass
efficiency (152.90 rating), 39th in rushing (183.75 ypg), 9th in
scoring offense (39.25 ppg), 30th in interceptions thrown (3), 1st in
fumbles lost (0), and 1st in giveaways (3).
QB:
Jr. Zac Lee (68 for 105, 927 yds, 7 TDs, 3 INTs) has been a very
efficient QB that has looked about as good as anybody in the country
this season, except for a difficult road game at Virginia Tech. In
that game he went 11 for 30 (37%) and threw 2 interceptions. He did
bounce back nicely last week against Louisiana and was nearly perfect
(15 of 18). When he has been "on", he's shown great arm strength and
accuracy. He does tend to lock onto his target and telegraph his
throws, which is something he needs to work on. He has good speed and
is able to escape pressure in the backfield and also pick up yards in
designed run plays. Lee has rushed for 61 yards on 20 attempts.
Behind Lee are TFr. Cody Green (12 for 17, 98 yds, 1 TD) and Jr.
LaTravis Washington. Green has a lot of potential to be a big-time
dual-threat QB. He can run well, and has shown a very strong arm.
Green has carried the ball 6 times for 79 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Washington has a strong arm with good speed as well, but he has not
made the strides that Green has.
RB: Nebraska's
running backs are led by Jr. Roy Helu Jr. (73 carries, 464 yds, 5
TDs). Helu Jr. has a great combination of hard running, leaping, and
cutting ability. He can beat defenders by running around them, by
them, and over them. He has really turned into a complete back over
the past season. Behind Helu Jr. is TFr. Rex Burkhead (18 carries, 84
yds, 1 TD), an impressive, young back that looks like a solid second
option. RFr. Lester Ward (1 carry, 8 yds), So. Marcus Mendoza (1
carries, -1 yds), and So. Austin Jones (3 carries, 11 yds) are also
possibilities to see carries in the backfield. There's potential in
the reserve group, but nothing proven yet. Nebraska likes to throw the
ball to their backs, and will be a bigger part of the offense as the
season moves forward. Helu Jr. (11 catches, 91 yds) and Burkhead (7
catches, 62 yds, 1 TD) have caught passes, both having great ability to
break a few tackles after the catch and motor downfield. Burkhead made
some outstanding moves and broke multiple tackles on his way to a 24
yard touchdown off a shovel pass. At fullback, RFr. Tyler Legate (2
catches, 14 yds, 1 TD) is the top guy and but doesn't see much time
with the ball .
WR/TE: Nebraska's receiving
corps has been pretty good this season, just inconsistent. The Huskers
are still looking for someone to be an eye-opening threat. Starting at
"Z" is Jr. Niles Paul (10 catches, 110 yds, 1 TD). He has a great
combination of size, quickness, and route running skills. In addition
to being able to catch the ball, he is also a solid blocker. Starting
at "X" will be Sr. Menelik Holt (9 catches, 98 yds, 1 TD), who has
great size as well as speed. He has potential to turn into a great
target, but continues to drop passes and hasn't been a very good
blocker. Reserves include So. Curenski Gilleylen (8 catches, 255 yds,
1 TD), Sr. Chris Brooks (8 catches, 111 yds, 1 TD), Jr. Brandon Kinnie
(1 catch, 5 yds), TFr. Antonio Bell (1 catch, 3 yds), RFr. Khiry Cooper
(3 catches, 32 yds), Jr. Will Henry (1 catch, 1 yd), and Sr. Wes
Cammack (1 catch, 2 yds). Gilleylen is a speedster and has developed
into Nebraska most dangerous deep threat. Brooks is turning into a
solid possession receiver this year, and is becoming a big contributor
for the unit. Kinnie and Cooper are two exciting young players that
could work their way up as the season moves forward. Henry is a big
body (6'5") and if he puts it all together, could be an excellent
threat. Nebraska's top TE is Jr. Mike McNeill (11 catches, 138 yds, 2
TDs), with So. Dreu Young (2 catch, 61 yds), So. Ryan Hill (1 catch, 7
yds), RFr. Ben Cotton (2 catches, 10 yds), and RFr. Kyler Reed (2
catches, 25 yds) competing behind McNeill. McNeill does a nice job of
picking up yards after catch, as well as getting open in the endzone.
Reed will also be used as a HB this season, as the coaches look to get
his skills onto the field. This is a deep and talented group of tight
ends that is a big strength for the Huskers' offense.
OL:
Nebraska’s offensive line appears to be getting better each week this
season, but still has a ways to go consistency-wise. The right side of
the line has been a problem, both with blocking and penalties.
Starting at tackle is Jr. Mike Smith (6'6", 295 lbs) on the left and
So. Marcel Jones (6'7", 310 lbs) on the right. Smith has a history of
back problems, and it is critical for him to stay healthy. Jones is
the largest of the linemen, and has great potential to be a rock on the
right side. Jr. D.J. Jones (6'5", 315 lbs) is listed as a co-starter
with Marcel Jones, even though Marcel sees more snaps. D.J. really
struggled against Virginia Tech's Jason Worilds a couple weeks ago.
TFr. Jeremiah Sirles (6'6", 310 lbs) is another possibility to see in a
reserve role at tackle. Starting at left guard is Jr. Keith Williams
(6'5", 315 lbs), while Jr. Ricky Henry (6'4", 300 lbs) starts at right
guard. Williams is a great blocker and should only get better. He
does very well as the pulling guard, plowing through his man and
opening holes. Henry is a player known for his strength and his nasty
streak, which can sometimes get him in trouble. Sr. Andy Christensen
(6'3", 305 lbs) and Sr. Derek Meyer (6'5", 315 lbs) are Nebraska's top
reserves at guard. Christensen is a former starter that missed last
season mostly due to a suspension. Sr. Jacob Hickman (6'4", 290 lbs)
starts at center, with So. Mike Caputo (6'1", 275 lbs) backing him up.
Hickman is the leader of the group and a solid center. He had some
issues with shotgun last week, but will not likely be a recurring issue.
Nebraska DefenseNebraska's
defense has looked solid so far this season, much better than they have
performed in years. Nebraska is currently ranked 21st nationally in
total defense (285.50 ypg), 23rd in pass defense (169.75 ypg), 16th in
pass efficiency defense (97.65 rating), 39th in rush defense (115.75
ypg), 1st in scoring defense (7 ppg), 78th in interceptions (3), 56th
in fumbles recovered (4), and 81st in total takeaways (7).
DL:
Nebraska’s defensive line has become the dominant group they were
expected to be in the pre-season over the past few games. They're big,
strong, and athletic. Starting at defensive end is Jr. Pierre Allen
(16 tackles, 1 sack, 3 QBH, 1 PBU) on the right, with Sr. Barry Turner
(15 tackles, 0.5 sack, 1 FR, 5 QBH) on the left. Both Allen and Turner
have excellent athleticism, but have been pretty inconsistent this
season. RFr. Cameron Meredith (7 tackles, 1 sack, 1 FR, 2 QBH, 1 PBU)
and RFr. Josh Williams (3 tackles) are the top reserves at defensive
end. Meredith has been impressive in his back-up role, and is pushing
for more playing time. Starting at nose tackle is Sr. Ndamukong Suh
(26 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 QBH, 6 PBU), with So. Terrence Moore (2
tackles) backing him up. Suh is an elite tackle that has a motor that
doesn't quit, flies to the ball and forces turnovers. He very rarely
comes off the field, yet still has the energy to bring it in the fourth
quarter. So. Jared Crick (16 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 3 QBH, 1 BLK) starts
at defensive tackle, with RFr. Baker Steinkuhler (13 tackles) providing
back-up. Crick is counted on to make plays with Suh being doubled up,
and is getting better each week.
LB: Nebraska's
linebacking corps is young and has seemed to really gel with the return
of Phillip Dillard two games ago. With two of the three starters being
redshirt-freshmen, they are getting better each week. Starting at
weakside linebacker is Sr. Phillip Dillard (8 tackles, 1 sack).
Dillard is a former starter at MIKE that didn't play in the first two
games, but is doing a great job at WILL. He brings athleticism and
experience to the field, invaluable, especially as they get into league
play. Behind Dillard are Jr. Blake Lawrence (10 tackles) and So.
Matthew May (4 tackles). Both have been bothered by minor injuries
this season. Starting at middle linebacker is RFr. Will Compton (20
tackles, 2 QBH, 1 PBU), while Sr. Colton Koehler (5 tackles) is the top
reserve. Compton works hard to get after the ball carrier, but is
still learning the defense and will make mistakes. Starting at buck
linebacker is RFr. Sean Fisher (20 tackles, 1 FR. 3 QBH), with TFr.
Eric Martin (5 tackles) and RFr. Micah Kreikemeier providing back-up.
Fisher stands at 6'6", and like Compton, will get better each week as
they learn how to quickly read and react to the opposing offense.
Martin has the ability to be a force for the Huskers, when he gets the
mental aspect of the game down to match his physicality, he'll be a
good one.
DB: Nebraska’s defensive backfield has
played well this season. Other than a couple of big plays given up,
they have done a nice job in coverage and making solid tackles. Jr.
Prince Amukamara (21 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT, 1 FF, 2 PBU) starts at
LCB, with Jr. Dejon Gomes (4 tackles, 1 FF) and TFr. Andrew Green
listed as the top reserves. Amukamara has been pretty solid and has
great athleticism, just needs to be more consistent in coverage. Jr.
Anthony West (7 tackles, 1 PBU) starts at RCB, with So. Alfonzo Dennard
(4 tackles) and So. Lance Thorell (3 tackles, 1 PBU) listed as the top
reserves. West has been average, and needs to play more with his head
on a swivel. At strong safety is Sr. Larry Asante (23 tackles, 1 INT,
1 FF, 3 PBU) starts, with Jr. Eric Hagg (11 tackles, 1 sack, 1 FF, 1
QBH) and RFr. P.J. Smith (4 tackles) backing him up. Asante has great
athleticism and is a big hitter. He had his first interception
returned for touchdown in his last game against Louisiana. He injured
his ankle, but should be ready to go on Thursday. Hagg is used often
as a blitzing safety, and also as a nickel back. Sr. Matt O'Hanlon (19
tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT, 1 FF, 1 FR) starts at free safety. O'Hanlon is
often picked on and susceptible to being burned, however, has made some
big plays in his career as well. Sr. Rickey Thenarse (11 tackles, 1
FF) was a co-starter at the position, however, suffered a likely season
ending knee injury in their last game. Behind O'Hanlon will be Hagg,
So. Austin Cassidy (4 tackles, 1 PBU), and RFr. Courtney Osborne.
Nebraska Special TeamsNebraska's
special teams units have been very good this year, . The one area for
improvement is tackling on the coverage units, especially kickoffs.
The Huskers rank 63rd in net punting (36.07 yd avg), 45th in kickoff
returns (23.22 yd avg), 25th in punt returns (13.14 yd avg), 53rd in
kickoff coverage (20.80 yd avg), and 31st in punt coverage (5 yd avg).
K:
Jr. Alex Henery has one of the strongest and most accurate legs in the
nation. He has made 8 of his 9 attempts this season, with a long of
46. He's made 21 straight kicks from under 50 yards. Jr. Adi Kunalic
has a booming leg and is arguably the best kickoff specialist in the
nation. Kunalic has pushed 16 of 31 kickoffs for touchback this
season, with an excellent 69.5 yard average.
P:
Jr. Alex Henery has averaged 42 yards on his 14 punts with a long of 76
this season. 7 of his 14 punts have been downed inside the opponents'
20, including a pair downed inside the 2 in his last outing. He added
punting duties to his repertoire this season, and is getting better
each week.
KR/PR: Nebraska’s top kickoff
return unit is made up of Jr. Niles Paul (8 returns, 24.2 yd avg, 32 yd
long), and TFr. Rex Burkhead (1 kick return, 15 yds). Others that
could possibly return kicks are So. Curenski Gilleylen and So. Alfonzo
Dennard. At punt returner is Jr. Niles Paul (11 returns, 10.1 yd avg,
55 yd long). TFr. Rex Burkhead (3 returns, 24.3 yd avg, 33 yd long)
and RFr. Tim Marlowe could also see time returning punts. These units
have been great at times, but consistency is still an issue.
Coverage:
Nebraska’s coverage teams have looked pretty good this season, just
inconsistent. Nebraska had difficulties with missed tackles against
Virginia Tech a couple of weeks ago. The kick coverage unit is
allowing an average of 20.8 yards on 15 kickoff returns (76 yd long),
while the punt coverage unit is allowing an average of 5.0 yards on 6
punt returns.
Unit Match-UpsNebraska's Offense vs. Missouri's DefenseNebraska's
offense has been driven well by QB Zac Lee. He had a difficult time in
his first road test a few weeks ago against the athletic, confusing
Virginia Tech defense. He bounced back nicely last week against
Louisiana, with a near perfect performance (15 of 18). Lee has shown
this season that he can make all the throws, and he likes to spread the
ball around. To date, 17 different receivers have caught passes from
the Nebraska quarterbacks. That's an impressive stat, considering just
four games have been played. Lee also excels at scrambling in the
pocket, whether to buy himself extra time to throw, or take off with it
on the ground. His mobility has been very useful to the Husker offense
this season. On the road against Missouri's defense, he'll look to
have a better game than he did against the Hokies a few weeks ago. He
was banged around in that game, and got rattled, something that can't
happen on Thursday if the Huskers are to be victorious. The Tigers'
defense has allowed their opponents to complete a high 61.2% of their
passes this season, while Zac Lee is completing 64.8% of his attempts
on the year. If Lee is completing at 61.2%, you'd have to feel pretty
good about Nebraska's chances.
The Huskers' receivers seem to be
getting better week-to-week, but still we haven't seen an All-Big XII
type playmaker in the group. WR Niles Paul has probably been the best
of the unit, but Missouri native Chris Brooks is starting to look like
the caliber of receiver he was projected to be out of high school. He
had a great game last week against Louisiana, catching 3 balls for 50
yards and a score. He would have had a second score, but the throw was
a tad off the mark. Curenski Gilleylen is another one to watch out
for, as the speedster is averaging an impressive 31.9 yards per catch
this year. Missouri doesn't give up a lot of big plays in the passing
game, but if Nebraska's going to get one, Gilleylen would be the most
likely target. The group of tight ends, led by another Missouri native
in Mike McNeill, is possibly the deepest in the conference. Given the
way the Missouri pass defense has played, the tight ends for Nebraska
should prove to be a valuable asset in the short to medium routes.
Missouri's starters in the secondary are all upperclassmen, but only
returned one starter from a year ago. The Tigers will face their
toughest test of the season after matching up against some fairly
mediocre groups in the non-conference schedule. The unit has good
size, with only one man under 6 feet tall, with solid, fast d-backs.
In pass coverage, the Tigers' secondary ranks fair at 39th, allowing a
rating of 113.27, while Nebraska's QB Zac Lee ranks 16th nationally in
pass efficiency (155.21).
Nebraska's running game has been
pretty solid, and possesses the Big XII's best back in Roy Helu Jr.
Helu carried for 85 yards and 2 touchdowns on 15 carries last week
against Louisiana, and was not happy with his performance. He did not
practice the past two days, due to an illness, but is expected to be
fine for Thursday night's game. He's the workhorse for Nebraska, and
his health is very important to the success of the offense. Top
backup, Rex Burkhead, finally got to see a good chunk of playing time
in last week's game, and showed his abilities off in both rushing and
receiving opportunities. Burkhead was not given any opportunities to
carry the ball against Nebraska's last tough challenge, at Virginia
Tech, and when he came in to spell Helu, it was always a pass play.
The Husker offense will need to have Burkhead get a few touches to be
at least a threat the Tigers will have to think about when he is on the
field.
Missouri's rush defense has not been great this season.
Through four games, the Tigers are allowing their opponents to rush for
4.46 yards per carry (taking sacks out). The front four seems built
towards more of a pass rushing unit, leaving a lot of clean-up for the
back seven. The linebackers are talented, and led by Sean
Weatherspoon, who is going to give all Big XII offenses someone to
think about out there. Against Nevada last week, the Tigers really had
issues with getting gashed between the tackles, and also difficulties
with misdirection and the read option. The linebackers seemed to
really bite on the RB on the zone read when Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick
kept the ball. Kaepernick rushed for 85 positive yards during the
game, both when scrambling and on options. The Wolf Pack's RB Luke
Lippincott ran for 114 yards during the game as well, which has to be a
concern moving forward as the Tigers will see much better backs.
Focusing
on third downs and red zone play, Nebraska is converting a solid 47.06%
of their third downs (22nd nationally), and scoring on an excellent 94%
of red-zone opportunities (11 TDs, 5 FGs) (15th nationally). Nebraska
was over 54% on third downs last week against Louisiana (6 for 11).
The Tigers' defense is allowing their opponents to convert a high
41.54% of their third downs (86th nationally), and have allowed those
opponents to score on 91% of their red-zone chances (7 TDs, 3 FGs)
(102nd nationally). Missouri's defense has played pretty well in the
red-zone, holding their opponents to field goals on 30% of the scores.
Sizing
up the lines, Nebraska's average offensive lineman is 6'5", 300 lbs,
while Missouri's average defensive lineman is 6'4", 276 lbs. On the
season, Nebraska has averaged 5.96 yards per carry while Missouri is
giving up 4.46 yards per carry. Nebraska has allowed 3 sacks and 19
tackles for loss on the year, while Missouri has picked up 9 sacks and
24 tackles for loss in four games this season. More than likely, the
Tigers will try to match DE Aldon Smith against Nebraska RT Marcel
Jones. Jones is Nebraska's youngest starter on the offensive line and
has been among the most mistake prone. Virginia Tech matched their top
DE, Jason Worilds against the Nebraska RT and he had a great game.
Smith isn't as good as Worilds, but he is the best pass rusher for
Missouri, and will give Jones a big challenge. The Huskers' offensive
line appears to be getting better, though, in both rush and pass
blocking, but will need to show it against better competition than the
Sun Belt had to offer. The Tigers' d-line didn't look too tough
against Nevada last week, though, and were pushed around up front when
the Wolf Pack decided to man up and get physical. If Nebraska decides
to do the same, it'll keep Missouri's offense off the field while
Nebraska chews the clock and wears down the Tiger defense.
Missouri's Offense vs. Nebraska's DefenseMissouri's
passing attack has not had the drop many expected after losing
multi-year starter Chase Daniel to graduation. QB Blaine Gabbert has
taken the reigns and played admirably, throwing 11 touchdowns and zero
interceptions. Granted, he hasn't played against a quality defense, or
one that currently ranks in the top 88 nationally, but he has kept
mistakes to a minimum. Last week against Nevada, which has been one of
the worst pass defenses in the country the past few years, Gabbert
threw for 414 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has shown that he can keep
drives alive by rushing with the football, taking a handful of carries
each week for decent gains. His feet are used more for getting out of
the pocket to buy him extra time to throw, and he's been very good on
the run. Last week against Nevada, he completed an improbable pass
while nearly running out of bounds. He'll have to show that he can do
all of these things against a good defense this week in Nebraska.
After four games, Gabbert is completing 66.4% of his passes, while
Nebraska's defense is allowing their opponents' quarterbacks to
complete just 50.4% of their passes this season.
Missouri's wide
receivers are led by Danario Alexander, Jared Perry, and Wes Kemp. The
crew has a mix of good size, speed, and ability after the catch.
Alexander is performing like an All-American right now, shredding
through the defensive backfields of pretty much every team the Tigers
have faced. Perry is more in the mold of your traditional possession
receiver, while Wes Kemp has provided an excellent deep threat,
averaging 21.9 yards per catch. They will give Nebraska's defensive
back seven plenty to account for. Unlike in years past, however, the
Tigers really don't have a great tight end, with Andrew Jones leading
that group with only 39 yards receiving.
Nebraska's pass defense
has been pretty solid this season. With the injury to co-starter at
FS, Rickey Thenarse, the way Nebraska lines up in nickel, dime, and
dollar situations will be something to keep an eye on. While Thenarse
is more of a loss to the special teams than directly to the defense,
there may be a few different faces shuffled around in that 5th or 6th
d-back. And against a team that runs a spread like Missouri, they will
likely be in those alignments more often than not. Nebraska will look
to get as much pressure from the front four as possible, to allow the
defense to keep everyone covered. If they can't get pressure from the
front four, Missouri should have a good amount of success through the
air. In pass coverage, the Huskers' secondary ranks 16th, allowing a
rating of 97.65, while Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert ranks 4th nationally
in pass efficiency (168.57).
The Tigers are looking for more
production from their ground game after struggling through the first
third of the season without much success. It gets much harder starting
this week, so they have to hope they're righted any wrongs during the
bye week. RB Derrick Washington was expected to be a stud, but has
only had a few real chances to break anything, most recently on a
season-long 42 yard run against Nevada last week. Other than that run,
the Tigers rushed for just 36 yards on 33 attempts. Of course, Nevada
in many situations was stacking the box, but Missouri must get much
better for Big XII play. Back-up De'Vion Moore is expected to be
healthy this week and paired with fellow back-up Kendial Lawrence,
could see a few touches on Thursday. Neither has shown much this
season, but Lawrence is the best of the groups in yards per carry (4.9).
The
Tigers will face their toughest challenge of the season in Nebraska's
rush defense. The Husker defense contained Virginia Tech's rushing
attack as well or better than Alabama's vaunted defense did this
season. The Huskers also kept their three Sun Belt opponents in
check. They get a good push up front and the linebackers have been
doing their job as well. Since Nebraska brought veteran LB Phillip
Dillard back into starting line-up two games ago, the defense has been
even stingier. Missouri has yet to get their running game going
fluidly this season, and it likely won't get on track this week either.
Looking
at how these teams perform on third downs and red-zone opportunities,
Missouri has converted a very good 44.83% of their third downs (31st
nationally), with an 93% red-zone scoring average (7 TDs, 7 FGs) (18th
nationally). Red zone scoring is an issue with the Tigers' offense, as
they have had a lot of issues scoring with a short field. This is part
of the problem with most spread offenses that don't have a potent
rushing attack to lean on. Nebraska's defense is allowing their
opponents to convert a decent 35.59% of their 3rd down attempts (47th
nationally), and has allowed an outstanding 67% red-zone scoring
percentage (3 TD, 1 FG) (10th nationally) this season.
Up
front, Missouri's average offensive lineman is 6'5", 306 lbs, while
Nebraska's average defensive lineman comes in at 6'4.5", 279 lbs. On
the season, Missouri is averaging 4.28 yards per carry (when taking
sacks out) while Nebraska is giving up just 3.1 yards per carry. The
Tigers have allowed 27 tackles for loss and 5 sacks, while the Huskers
have picked up 30 tackles for loss and 10 sacks. Expect Nebraska to be
in the backfield pretty often. Everybody knows about Nebraska’s
All-American NT Ndamukong Suh and the difficulties he presents to
opposing offensive linemen. Suh has dominated pretty much everyone
he's come up against this season, and this week will go head-to-head
against C Tim Barnes with either Austin Wuebbels or Kurtis Gregory.
This group has had tough times against the likes of Nevada, Bowling
Green, and Illinois. Even Furman managed a sack and 3 tackles for
loss. Nebraska is head and shoulders above those four up front. One
area for concern for Missouri has to be RT Dan Hoch, he had a rough
game last week against Nevada, getting beat off the edge often.
Nebraska has a good group of defensive ends that will give him more
difficulties this week. This is going to be an interesting unit to
watch. The line must protect Gabbert and create space to run through.
Keys to the Game
Nebraska:1.)
Can Lee Perform on the Road?
- He struggled at Virginia Tech in his first road game as a starter,
and while Missouri's defense isn't as good as VT's, the jury is still
out on whether Zac Lee can be a consistent QB away from Lincoln. He
doesn't need to be prolific, but needs to manage the game well.
2.)
Get After Gabbert
- He hasn't faced a tough, hard-nosed defense yet this season, so a
consistent rush with contact will go a long ways to rattle the
youngster.
3.)
Eliminate Mistakes - Last time on the road,
Nebraska struggled with offensive line penalties, and even at home
they've had issues with burning timeouts. These are mistakes that can
be eliminated and can make a big impact on the game.
Missouri:1.)
Rush Defense Needs to Step Up
- The Tigers have let lesser teams have a lot of success on the
ground. Nebraska has the Big XII's best back in Roy Helu, and cannot
afford to allow him a big day.
2.)
Find Some Consistency in the Run Game
- The ground performance against Nevada was abysmal outside of one long
run in the second half. Nebraska's defensive front is much better than
anything they've seen. Have to dig deep and find a way to grind out
some yards on the ground.
3.)
Gabbert Needs to be On - We finally get to see him against a real defense. Will the results still be the same?
Position Advantages:Position/
AdvantageQBs:
EvenRBs:
NebraskaWR/TE's:
MissouriOL:
NebraskaDL:
NebraskaLB:
MissouriDB:
NebraskaSpecial Teams:
NebraskaCoaching:
EvenInjury
ReportNebraska:SS - Larry Asante - Ankle - Probable
CB - Prince Amukamara - Leg - Probable
FS - Rickey Thenarse - Knee - Out Indefinitely
QB - Kody Spano - Knee - Out for Season
Missouri:CB - Munir Prince - Hamstring - Doubtful
RB - De'Vion Moore - Ankle - Probable
MLB - Luke Lambert - Ankle - Probable
OLB - Josh Tatum - Back - Questionable
Final OutlookThursday
will be the 103rd all-time meeting between Missouri and Nebraska.
Nebraska leads the series 63-36-3 since first playing in 1892.
Missouri has won the last two meetings against Nebraska and the last 3
games played in Columbia. Last year, in Lincoln, the Tigers
annihilated the Huskers 52-17. Both teams are quite different than a
year ago, with many new starters. Between Nebraska's infusion of young
talent and a year of experience under head coach Bo Pelini, and
Missouri's loss of most of their playmakers from a year ago, the
match-up has evened up considerably. Nebraska still has to show that
they can win a big game on the road, however, as they haven't defeated
a top 20 team (Missouri is #18 in coaches’ poll) in their house since
1997.
Missouri will present Nebraska with its toughest test in
terms of passing attacks, while Nebraska presents the best pass defense
that Missouri has seen this year. Gabbert will have to perform at a
very high level against a bigger, faster, smarter defense than he has
played to this point in the season for the Tigers to win this game. If
Nebraska is able to get after Gabbert and get him rattled, it will not
bode well for Missouri. The big problem with the Tigers is that they
just can't consistently run the football, and without the threat of a
solid run game, it can make it easier on a defense. Nebraska is strong
up front on defense, and should control the line of scrimmage,
especially considering the way the Missouri offensive line was pushed
around and beaten by Nevada's defensive front last week.
Nebraska
will look to play much better in their second road game than in their
first one they played against Virginia Tech this year. The Huskers
have bounced back well since that game and have shown that they can go
at opponents with a balanced attack. Missouri's defense hasn't played
a team with the offensive talents of Nebraska this season, and has
struggled against those lesser teams. Missouri's defensive front was
shoved around by Nevada last week, and really struggled with their
mobile QB and average RB. If Nebraska QB Zac Lee doesn't get rattled
like he did in the Virginia Tech game, and the run game continues to
churn along for the Huskers, they'll have a very good evening.
One
thing that could impact the game this week will be the weather. There
is an 80% chance of rain in Columbia at kickoff, and it is supposed to
rain almost all day prior to the game. Field turf drains the water
pretty well, but it will still be slippery and wet, especially if it is
raining during the game. With the rain, it's hard to tell who it will
favor. Running the ball is typically thought of as having the advantage
in ugly situations, but that isn't always the case. It does help the
passing game since the defense will have a harder time keeping footing
on the slippery surface. The one thing the rain can do is keep the
score down.
Overall, this should be an entertaining game,
probably more so than people may have predicted at the beginning of the
season. We don't know a lot about Missouri just yet, however, because
they haven't really played any team that you could call anything better
than mediocre. Nebraska has played three Sun Belt teams, but one of
those, Arkansas State, took Iowa to the brink last week in a very good
game. The Huskers were given a test in their game at Virginia Tech two
games ago. They outplayed the Hokies for most of the game, up until
the final 2 minutes.
Nebraska's balanced offense will get
opportunities to score against the Tigers' defense that has been giving
up big chunks of yards this year. RB Roy Helu will be a difference
maker, keeping drives alive and busting off some big runs. Missouri
will get a few big plays out of Danario Alexander and company, but it
won't be consistent enough to come out with a win. Nebraska should get
the win by around 7-10 points.
Nebraska - 27
Missouri - 20